The AFC East champion will be determined by the outcome of the Bills’ game against the Dolphins in Miami.
Going into the last week, Buffalo may have the most intriguing situation of any team. They might finish as high as the second seed and yet not make it to the postseason. They are an unwelcome squad with legitimate Super Bowl potential that may not make it to the big game.
How to win it for the Bills
The Bills now have four options to secure a postseason berth.
Gain at the Dolphins secures the AFC East title and the #2 seed.
Tie secures a postseason berth.
Jaguars’ defeat/tie secures a postseason berth
Postseason berth secured by Texans-Colts tie (Texans won)
That’s a lot of outs, and if the Jaguars lose (or draw) on Sunday night, they might already have secured a postseason berth. Buffalo will be in if the Jaguars fall to the Titans on Sunday afternoon.
You can see why SportsLine projects Buffalo to have an 89 percent chance of making the postseason.
The Jaguars (5.5-point favourites vs. 5-11 Titans) might win comfortably, therefore the onus would be on the Bills to prevail in Miami.
With five games remaining, the Bills trailed the Dolphins by three games, so it’s kind of crazy that we are even discussing a winner-take-all contest for the AFC East championship. With five weeks left, they may tie the 1973 Bengals, 2008 Chargers, and 2022 Jaguars as the fourth team in NFL history to win a division after trailing by three games.
In what way would this scenario destroy Buffalo? Three teams would compete for the remaining two Wild Card slots, with scores of 10-7. The order is Texans, Steelers, and Bills. Thanks to a superior conference record than Buffalo, the Texans and Steelers would both be admitted.
All of this indicates that Buffalo and its supporters are in for a very emotional ride. According to pro football researcher Ivan Urena, they are the ninth team since 1990 to have a chance to finish as the two seed in the regular season but yet miss out on the playoffs going into the last week of play.
You’ll notice that only two of those teams—none of which received a two seed—did not make the playoffs when you look at the list below.
