The build up to the draft is filled with drama amid reports of Pittsburgh looking to trade for Brandon Aiyuk, and Aiyuk’s agent shooting the rumors down.
Unlike the talks with Deebo Samuel I think a trade is possible, but I don’t expect it to happen. Samuel was valued most by the Niners so lacking options he compromised on money. Aiyuk is valued most outside the organization by clubs which would likely give him more targets and more money. Therefore Aiyuk is more apt to dig in. He’s asking for his true market value and is confident teams are willing to pay it.
For the Niners to agree to a trade they need to value the offer. Everything out of Pittsburgh says pick 20 is off limits, and in my view that means Brandon Aiyuk is off limits. A trade without 20 would require 51, 84, and a 2025 2nd for equal value. The Steelers won’t do that either. So Aiyuk stays.
Pittsburgh wants Aiyuk for a 2nd and a late pick according to the reports. Well sure, who wouldn’t? Stefon Diggs went for a future 2nd and he had better stats? That’s 30 year-old Stefon Diggs with 160 targets last year vs. a 26-year old Aiyuk with 105. With Diggs’ target volume, Aiyuk has 114 catches for 1,812 yards and 10 TDs. Diggs was 107-1,183-8.
If Shanahan agreed to a 2nd and a late pick for Aiyuk he would be shishkabobbed by the Faithful. That deal would be impossible to sell to Shanahan, much less the fanbase. Pittsburgh won’t pay the 49ers trade ante and Shanahan won’t accept the Diggs deal. Stalemate.
Then it can get ugly. I don’t see Aiyuk moving off his 27-28M per asking price. That’s his market value. The Niners can say, yeah but not to us because we throw less. The retort is that’s your decision on targets, but the market value remains.
Then the Niners have a choice, meet his asking price or threaten to roll him over to the 5th-year option. I believe Aiyuk would respond to the 5th-year option by holding out – and he only has to play six games in a season to accrue the year.
