Yankees are expected to have a successful return in 2024.
As the team attempts to return to the postseason, the New York Yankees made several adjustments that the analytics enjoy.
After a dismal 2023 campaign, the New York Yankees are in the offseason. However, Baseball Prospectus thinks the Yankees will have a fantastic 2024.
With simulations projecting a range of victories for each team entering the season, the website created its first PECOTA projected standings for the 2024 campaign. To assist in creating the projections, the website runs over 1,000 simulations using a simulator.
Baseball Prospectus has a proprietary system called PECOTA, which stands for individual Empirical Comparison and Optimisation Test Algorithm. It is used to estimate individual and team performance.
However, BP also uses the simulations to produce PECOTA standings. Those standing predict that the Yankees will have a significant comeback in 2024.
The Yankees are projected to win 94.5 games, which is just one-tenth of a win behind the Houston Astros’ 94.6 projection for the best record in the American League.
That would be a big jump for the Yankees, who won just 83 games last season and missed the playoffs.
The estimates don’t just provide wins and defeats (67.5 losses for the record). BP is also expecting the Yankees to score 827 runs and give up 684 runs.
According to the standings, the Yankees have a 59.5% probability of taking home the AL East, which Baltimore won the previous year. They have a 32% chance of making the Wild Card and a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs overall.
The Yankees have a 76.6% likelihood of making it to the Division Series and an 11.7% chance of winning the World Series from that point on.
