To do that, he will have to beat the reigning world road race champion Mathieu van der Poel of the Netherlands as well as his Belgian compatriot Wout van Aert who seems to have finally found his best form after a season disrupted by a crash in the Dwars door Vlaanderen in late March. The two faced each other earlier in the Olympics time trial, which Evenepoel won, with van Aert finishing third.
Only two riders have come close to winning the Olympics road race and ITT double: Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara who won the time trial in the 2008 Beijing Olympics but finished second in the road race, and Jan Ullrich of Germany who won the road race in Sidney in 2000 but finished second in the ITT.
To achieve this historic result, Evenepoel will have to beat arguably the best Classics rider in the world in van der Poel. The Dutch rider has won the Tour of Flanders three times, Paris-Roubaix and Dwars door Vlaanderen twice each as well as several other notable one-day races. And he comes into the road race relatively fresh, having raced only in the Tour de France since mid-April – and he didn’t really break a sweat in the Tour, never racing for a stage victory on a course he said did not favour his style of racing.
The course also seems to favour van der Poel, as it resembles those northern Classics he favours. It features 2,800 m of climbing over its 273 km course with 13 short and steep categorised climbs including the Côte de la butte Montmartre (1 km @ 6.5%). That is the last climb of the day and comes 9.5 km from the finish line.
Evenepoel, on the other hand, has been very busy since his crash in the Tour of the Basque Country in early April. He finished seventh in the Critérium du Dauphiné, then placed a remarkable third in the Tour, revealing unexpected climbing ability. Six days after finishing the Tour, he won the Olympics ITT. This race will show if he still has some gas in the tank.
If he does, he will have to match van der Poel’s propensity for long breakaways in one-day races. But the 24-year-old Evenepoel has also won one-day races with a long breakaway and he should not be intimidated by the Paris hills after his impressive climbing in the Tour. If Evenepoel cannot yet climb with the likes of Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, both absent from this race, he should have no problem with these slopes – if he still has the legs.
But the Olympics road race is also a team race, with a country’s honour at stake, which sometimes (though not often) persuades a rider to put his ego aside and race for the team. Each team consists of a maximum of four riders, with some countries naming three and many countries sending only two. A large number of nations nominated only one rider, such as Eritrea, which has entered only the Tour de France Škoda Green Jersey winner Biniam Girmay. That means the peloton will have only 90 riders, which should greatly reduce the risk of crashes.
Belgium has the full complement of four riders, with Jasper Stuyven and Tiesj Benoot supporting Evenepoel and van Aert, while the Netherlands have three, as only Daan Hoole and Dylan van Baarle will be riding with van der Poel.
One fascinating aspect of the race will be the attitudes of van Aert and Evenepoel, both of whom would love to win. Will they take a page from the playbook of the former Jumbo-Visma team (today Visma–Lease a Bike) and take turns attacking van der Poel as van Aert and Primož Roglič did to Pogačar in the 2021 Tour de France? And which of the two will be van der Poel’s main challenger?
While Evenepoel went max in the Tour, van Aert saved himself for the Olympics, rarely riding at 100% on the climbs. The decision of who is the Belgian leader will likely be ad hoc, made on the road as the race develops. Van Aert’s impressive Olympics time trial showed that he has recovered his form but it’s doubtful that he can beat a fully fit van der Poel in a one-day race.
There are, of course, other riders to consider, such as France’s Julian Alaphilippe. The two-time world road race champion is also fit again after several years marred by crashes and illness. At his best, he can challenge for the win. And he has stellar support in Christophe Laporte, Valentin Madouas and 2024 Tour stage winner Kevin Vauquelin.
The young American Matteo Jorgenson has had a terrific season, winning the Dwars door Vlaanderen (after Visma teammate van Aert crashed out) and finishing eighth in the Tour GC standings while riding in support of Vingegaard. He finished an excellent fourth in the Tour’s rugged stage 21 ITT and sat out the Olympics time trial to rest for the road race.
And there is Great Britain’s 20-year-old speedster Joshua Tarling who was deprived of a medal in the time trial by a flat tyre. He will be eager to make up for that misfortune but his climbing is suspect. That doesn’t apply to his teammate, Tom Pidcock, who has already won gold in the cross-country mountain bike competition, the second time in succession he has won the Olympics in that discipline. On his best day, he is an excellent one-day rider and is obviously at the top of his game.
Finally, Denmark’s Mads Pedersen had to leave the Tour after stage 7 because of a crash, so he is well rested and should be able to deal with the climbs if he has recovered from his injuries. If so, he will stay with the leaders for as long as he can, perhaps even to the finish line.
There are many potential gold medal winners riding in the race but there will be only one. His name will probably be Mathieu van der Poel.
